Scientists from Wuppertal participate in "LecturesForFuture"
Scientists from Wuppertal participate in "LecturesForFuture"
CHaracterisation of the Internal vARiability of the Atmosphere (CHIARA)
University of Wuppertal, Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Research
Prof. Dr. Ralf Koppmann, E-mail: koppmann@uni-wuppertal.de
Peter Knieling, E-mail: knieling@uni-wuppertal.de
Dirk Offermann, E-mail: offerm@uni-wuppertal.de
Modelling and Understanding Solar Irradiance Changes – Phase II (MUSIC-II)
Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Göttingen
Dr. Natalie Krivova, Email: natalie@mps.mpg.de
Prof. Dr. Sami K. Solanki, Email: solanki@mps.mpg.de
Dr. Theodosios Chatzistergos, Email: chatzistergos@mps.mpg.de
Dr. Kok Leng Yeo, Email: yeo@mps.mpg.de
How did the triad of solar and volcanic forcing, and ocean variability shape the early 19th century and might shape Europe’s future climate? (TRIAD)
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg
Dr. Claudia Timmreck, Email: claudia.timmreck@mpimet.mpg.de
Dr. Hauke Schmidt, Email: hauke.schmidt@mpimet.mpg.de
Dr. Johann Jungclaus, Email: johann.jungclaus@mpimet.mpg.de
An improvement of uncertainties in the prediction of climate change in the next decades is crucial especially regarding political measures for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Besides very specific sources of uncertainties such as changes in radiative forcing due to clouds and aerosol particles or changes in small and large-scale dynamical processes in a warming world a deeper knowledge of possible natural variations and the impact of internal and external forcing is of major importance.
Previous investigations show that internal variability of the atmosphere itself and/or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system seems to have a significant influence on long-term development of atmospheric temperatures. Temporary internal forcings such as volcanic eruptions and long-term external forcings such as changes in solar activity may superimpose and probably enhance these variabilities. The overarching scientific questions of the joint research project are:
The proposed project consists of three parts:
The goal of CHIARA is to investigate the internal variability of the atmosphere, which is present even if there would be no external forcing at all.
Regarding the temperature increase in the framework of climate change, the knowledge of long periodic variations is essential to distinguish between the anthropogenic influence and internal variability of the atmosphere. As Deser et al. (2012) pointed out, the characterization and quantification of uncertainties in climate change projections is of fundamental importance especially for strategic approaches to adaptation and mitigation. The authors emphasize that one specific uncertainty is the internal variability, i.e. the variability of the climate system, which occurs in the absence of external forcing and which arises from non-linear dynamical processes and is an intrinsic property of the atmosphere and probably the coupled ocean-atmosphere-system. Within the first phase of ROMIC (MALODY) we found strong evidence for long-periodic oscillations that extend from ground up to altitudes of 110 km and that are potentially self-excited intrinsic oscillations of the atmosphere. As a contribution to improve decadal climate projections and the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies, with the proposed project we plan to further investigate these oscillations to answer the following scientific questions:
The main goal of MUSIC-II is to greatly reduce the existing uncertainty in the amplitude of long-term solar irradiance changes and determine how much brighter the Sun is today than during the Maunder minimum by applying two novel and independent techniques that employ
The final outcome of the project will be a robust estimate of the irradiance changes since the Maunder minimum as well as a new time series of TSI, with significantly reduced uncertainties in the secular trend.
The overall goal of TRIAD is to understand the triad of solar, volcanic and ocean variabilityunder pre-industrial and anthropogenic forced conditions by using early 19th century natural forcing reconstructions. We concentrate on the following three points:
zuletzt bearbeitet am: 12.04.2022